President Joe Biden is facing a challenge with the Democratic base regarding the Israel-Hamas War, and this issue is particularly divided based on age. Younger Democrats are more skeptical of Israel’s actions in the conflict and its broader geopolitical implications compared to older Democrats. This age gap within the party is one of the largest on any significant issue.
According to a recent Quinnipiac University poll, Biden’s approval rating among Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters for his handling of the Israel-Hamas War is 56%, compared to his overall job performance approval rating of 76% among Democratic voters. A notable minority (36%) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters disapprove of his handling of the war, and these disapproving voters tend to be younger.
Among Democrats younger than 35, the majority (69%) disapprove of Biden’s response to the war, while only 24% approve. The situation is reversed among older Democrats, with 77% approving and only 16% disapproving. The cause of this split becomes clear when examining the data further. Biden has been perceived as more sympathetic towards Israel than Palestinians during the war, which does not align with the views of younger Democrats.
When asked which side they sympathize with more, Democrats younger than 35 are significantly more likely to sympathize with Palestinians (74%) than Israelis (16%). On the other hand, Democrats 65 and older tend to side with Israelis (45%) more than Palestinians (25%). Overall, Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters are evenly divided, with 39% sympathizing with Palestinians and 35% with Israelis.
This represents a drastic change from the beginning of the Israel-Hamas War when Democrats were more likely to sympathize with Israel by a 48% to 22% margin. That initial poll was conducted shortly after a surprise terrorist attack by Hamas that claimed the lives of about 1,200 people. Since then, Israel has launched an offensive in Gaza, resulting in a significant number of Palestinian casualties according to the Hamas-controlled Ministry of Health.
However, the age breakdown goes beyond this specific war or the relationship between Israel and Palestine. It delves into how Democrats perceive Israel as a partner. The majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters (70%) believe that supporting Israel is in the national interest, including 87% of those 65 and older. Conversely, among Democrats younger than 35, only 40% believe that backing Israel is in the national interest, with the majority (52%) holding the opposite view.
Unsurprisingly, these younger Democrats also oppose supplying military aid to Israel in its conflict with Hamas, with only 21% in favor and 77% against it. In contrast, older Democrats support military aid by a 53% to 32% margin. Overall, Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters are almost evenly split on this issue, with 49% against and 44% in favor.
In contrast to the Democratic base, voters overall are more supportive of Israel. A majority (54%) sympathize more with Israelis than Palestinians, while only 24% sympathize more with Palestinians. Additionally, a significant majority (73%) of all voters, including Democrats, Republicans, and independents, believe that backing Israel is in the national interest of the United States.
Biden’s dilemma lies in the fact that he will likely need more support from younger voters leading up to the 2024 election. In the 2020 election, he won voters younger than 35 by a margin of more than 20 points. However, recent polling suggests that his lead over former President Donald Trump among this demographic is now only in the low single digits, highlighting potential challenges for a potential rematch.
While it is unclear if Biden’s handling of the war is directly responsible for his decreased support from younger voters, it is certainly not helping him. This adds to the growing list of problems he faces, as he is currently the second incumbent president in the last 80 years to be trailing at this stage before the next presidential election. The other president in this situation is the man he defeated three years ago – Donald Trump.
